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Xinda Management Group Shenzhen China: AIRBNB

May 7, 2013

China's economy is expected to rebound slightly in the second quarter due to its policy easing, new leadership, gains on stock markets and better global economic climate, according to a report from the official China Securities Journal.

In the second quarter, the economy is forecast to grow at 8%, with consumer price index inflation growing at about 2.3%, the newspaper said, citing China's State Information Centre (SIC).

China's economic growth unexpectedly stumbled in the first quarter, falling to 7.7% from 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012. The decline was driven by reduced factory output and investment.

The SIC, however, estimated a slowdown in the country's export growth to around 10% in the second quarter from 18% in the first quarter due to rising trade protection.

Meanwhile, import growth is expected at around 8% this quarter, compared with 8.4% in the first quarter. China will release its April trade figures on 8 May.

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"Although the external environment facing China has improved, our country's strong export growth rate cannot be sustained as demand is still not strong and trade protection rises," the paper quoted from the SIC report.

"As European countries are stuck in light recession, RMB real effective exchange rate will face even stronger pressure to appreciate due to increasing protectionism. Therefore, export cannot sustain rapid growth, while import may not be able to increase due to weak domestic demand."

The economic recovery in the second quarter will be supported by continued growth in infrastructure investment, according to the SIC. It expects a 21% growth in total fixed asset investment and an 18.2% growth in real estate investment in the second quarter.

In addition, consumption is expected to increase on employment growth, reforms in income distribution and higher minimum wages at some places. Sales of consumer goods would increase by 13.2% in the second quarter.

In line with the mild economic growth, prices are expected to remain stable with the consumer price index increasing marginally by 2.3% in the second quarter, while producer price index falling at a lower rate of about 0.8%, the report added.

The SIC report comes amid disappointing economic data for April, indicating a sluggish start for the second quarter. Growth in the manufacturing and services sectors slowed down in April, according to separate surveys.

The HSBC services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March. This follows an earlier released official non-manufacturing PMI of 54.5 in April, down from the March reading of 55.6.

The final April reading of a manufacturing PMI released by HSBC Holdings and Markit Economics was at 50.4, down from the preliminary reading of 50.5 and the March reading of 51.6. The official PMI showed a reading of 50.6 for April, down from a March reading of 50.9.

Xinda Management Group Shenzhen China - ALLVOICES

April 29, 2013

Growth in Chinese industrial firms’ profits slowed last month, adding to evidence the mainland’s economic recovery is losing steam.
Net income rose 5.3 per cent to 464.9 billion yuan (HK$580 billion) from last March, down from a 17.2 per cent pace in the first two months of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.
Profit in the first quarter rose 12.1 per cent to 1.17 trillion yuan, it said. Tax revenue growth for the first quarter also slowed by 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year, the Ministry of Finance said.
The data follows the supreme Politburo Standing Committee meeting on the economy on Thursday, which called for strengthening the mainland’s economic growth momentum while guarding against financial risks.
“Profits are only growing in line with sales and with problems of overcapacity and the sluggish global picture. It doesn’t bode well for a speedy return to higher profit margins,” said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.
“Heavy industries especially still face destocking and higher costs, but if there is a silver lining, industries catering to the consumer, like textiles, food and beverages, seem to be doing much better,” Kuijs said.
Industrial growth is facing pressure amid slowing domestic and global demand, Xiao Chunquan, a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology spokesman, said on Tuesday.
Profits at industrial firms were at “very low levels” compared with the past few years due to falling product prices and surging costs, Xiao said.
The world’s second-biggest economy grew 7.7 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, down from 7.9 per cent in the fourth quarter and trailing the eight per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
China Iron and Steel Association chairman Zhu Jimin said yesterday that producers should not be misled by “bright spots”, including improvements in downstream sectors like cars, railway and ship building.
“Downstream demand will gradually improve, but at the same time it is hard to see any relatively big rises in steel consumption, and the expectations of steel firms should not be too high, and they should not blindly expand output,” Zhu said. He said Beijing was seeking new ways to restructure the sector, which was still facing massive problems.
Meanwhile, the finance ministry issued its quarterly tax report yesterday, saying tax revenue for the first quarter increased by six per cent.
The ministry attributed the slowdown in revenue growth to the slack economy, weak demand, falling imports and other tax reduction measures, Xinhua reported.
While tariffs on imports and profit tax revenues from energy firms fell by 27.5 per cent and 40.1 per cent respectively, the quarterly report said taxes related to property transactions grew by as much as 48.2 per cent over the same period last year.


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